Potential predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a
superparameterizated model
Abstract
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a promising target for improving
sub-seasonal weather forecasts. Current forecast models struggle to
simulate the MJO due to imperfect convective parameterizations and mean
state biases, degrading their forecast skill. Previous studies have
estimated a potential MJO predictability 5-15 days higher than current
forecast skill, but these estimates also use models with parameterized
convection. We perform a perfect-model predictability experiment using a
superparameterized global model, in which the convective
parameterization is replaced by a cloud resolving model. We add a second
silent cloud resolving component to the control simulation that
independently calculates convective-scale processes using the same
large-scale forcings. The second set of convective states are used to
initialize forecasts, representing uncertainty on the convective scale.
We find a potential predictability of the MJO of 35-40 days in boreal
winter using a single-member ensemble forecast.