This study quantifies the contribution to Arctic winter surface warming from changes in the tropospheric energy transport (F_trop) and the efficiency with which F_trop heats the surface in the RCP8.5 warming scenario of the CESM Large Ensemble. A metric for this efficiency, E_trop, measures the fraction of anomalous F_trop that is balanced by an anomalous net surface flux (NSF). Drivers of E_trop are identified in synoptic-scale events during which F_trop is the dominant driver of NSF. E_trop is sensitive to the vertical structure of F_trop and pre-existing Arctic lower-tropospheric stability (LTS). In RCP8.5, winter mean F_trop decreases by 9.5 Wm^–2, while E_trop increases by 5.7%, likely driven by decreased Arctic LTS, indicating an increased coupling between F_trop and the surface energy budget. The net impact of decreasing F_trop and increasing efficiency is a positive 0.7 Wm^–2 contribution to winter-season surface heating.