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Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions
  • +8
  • Patricia DeRepentigny,
  • Alexandra Jahn,
  • Marika Holland,
  • Jennifer Kay,
  • John Fasullo,
  • Jean-François Lamarque,
  • Simone Tilmes,
  • Cécile Hannay,
  • Michael Mills,
  • David Bailey,
  • Andrew Barrett
Patricia DeRepentigny
University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Boulder

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Alexandra Jahn
University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Boulder
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Marika Holland
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Jennifer Kay
University of Colorado Boulder, University of Colorado Boulder
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John Fasullo
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Jean-François Lamarque
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Simone Tilmes
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Cécile Hannay
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Michael Mills
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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David Bailey
National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Center for Atmospheric Research
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Andrew Barrett
National Snow and Ice Data Center, National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Abstract

The mechanisms underlying decadal variability in Arctic sea ice remain actively debated. Here we show that variability in boreal biomass burning (BB) emissions strongly influences simulated Arctic sea ice on multi-decadal timescales. In particular, we find that a strong acceleration in sea ice decline in the early 21st century in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) is related to increased variability in prescribed CMIP6 BB emissions through summertime aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, we find that more than half of the reported improvement in sea ice sensitivity to CO2 emissions and global warming from CMIP5 to CMIP6 can be attributed to the increased BB variability, at least in the CESM. These results highlight a new kind of uncertainty that needs to be considered when incorporating new observational data into model forcing, while also raising questions about the role of BB emissions on the observed Arctic sea ice loss.