Abstract
Fundamentally related to the ultraviolet (UV) divergence problem in
Physics, conventional wisdom in seismology is that the smallest
earthquakes, which are numerous and often go undetected, dominate the
triggering of major earthquakes, making accurate forecasting of the
latter difficult if not inherently impossible. Using the general class
of epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models and rigorous
pseudo-prospective experiments, we show that ETAS models that feature a
specific magnitude correlation between triggered and triggering
earthquakes and a magnitude-dependent Omori kernel, significantly
outperform simpler ETAS models, in which these features are absent.
Using the best forecasting model, we then show that large earthquakes
are preferentially triggered by large events. These findings have
far-reaching implications for short-term and medium-term seismic risk
assessment, as well as for the development of a deeper theory without UV
cut-off that is locally self-similar.