Can forecasts of the start of the spring season improve allergy and
asthma symptom management?
Abstract
Allergic respiratory disease affects millions of Americans, resulting in
billions in medical expenses and lost productivity annually. Information
regarding when pollen concentrations are increasing across the country
is limited, diminishing the ability of health care professionals and
individuals suffering from allergies and asthma to anticipate and manage
their symptoms. The USA National Phenology Network, a science and
monitoring network that collects, stores, and shares data and
information products regarding the timing of seasonal events from across
the country, offers a series of map and short-term forecast products
that indicate the start of biological activity in the spring, based
mainly on temperature conditions. In this study, we evaluate the
potential for the Spring Indices to indicate the timing of the start and
peak of airborne pollen concentrations by plant taxa, and by extension,
their utility for predicting timing of increases in airborne allergenic
pollen concentrations. We compared daily pollen counts collected at
National Allergy Bureau (NAB) pollen counting stations across the
country to the day of year the two Spring Indices – the Leaf Index and
the Bloom Index – were met at those locations. In general, the Bloom
Index exhibited stronger relationships with the timing of peaks in
airborne pollen among the 36 plant taxa evaluated. This is likely
because the Bloom Index occurs later in the season, closer to the timing
of pollen peaks. However, relationships for the Leaf Index also
demonstrate coherence (adj R2; ~ 0.5 +/- 0.15 [SD]).
Relationships were generally strongest for Morus (mulberry), Populus
(poplar), Fraxinus (ash), and Salix (willow), though the taxa best
predicted by the Spring Indices varied by site. Strength of
relationships did not vary appreciably across geography. Overall, the
Spring Indices provide insight into seasonal pollen dynamics and have
the potential to enhance springtime allergy management.