The Greater Mekong’s climate-water-energy nexus: how ENSO-triggered
regional droughts affect power supply and CO2 emissions
Abstract
The Greater Mekong Subregion is a transnational area bound together by
the Mekong River basin and its immense hydropower resources,
historically seen as the backbone of regional economic development. The
basin is now punctuated by several dams, successful in attracting both
international investors and fierce criticisms for their environmental
and societal impacts. Surprisingly, no attention has been paid so far to
the actual performance of these infrastructures: is hydropower supply
robust with respect to the hydro-climatic variability characterizing
Southeast Asia? When water availability is altered, what are the
implications for power production costs and CO2
emissions? To answer these questions, we focus on the Laotian–Thai
grid—the first international power trade infrastructure developed in
the region—and use a power system model driven by a
spatially-distributed hydrological-water management model. Simulation
results over a 30-year period show that production costs and carbon
footprint are significantly affected by droughts, which reduce
hydropower availability and increase reliance on thermoelectric
resources. Regional droughts across the Mekong basin are of particular
concern, as they reduce the export of cheap hydropower from Laos to
Thailand. To put the analysis into a broader climate-water-energy
context, we show that the El Niño Southern Oscillation modulates not
only the summer monsoon, but also the power system behaviour, shaping
the relationship between hydro-climatological conditions, power
production costs, and CO2 emissions. Overall, our
results and models provide a knowledge basis for informing robust
management strategies at the water-energy scale and designing more
sustainable power plans in the Greater Mekong Subregion.