Influence of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on Super Cyclone
Activities over the Bay of Bengal During the Primary Cyclone Season
Abstract
An obvious interdecadal change is measured in the super cyclones (SCs,
categories 4 and 5) that occur from Oct-Nov over the Bay of Bengal
(BoB). This change may be modulated by the interdecadal Pacific
oscillation (IPO). A La Niña-like difference between the 1977–1998
(IP1) and 1999–2014 (IP2) periods forces a local Hadley circulation in
the eastern tropical Indian Ocean by strengthening the Walker
circulation, causing a plummeting upper-level temperatures and
ultimately creating favorable thermodynamic conditions to enhance the
cyclone intensity. Meanwhile, an equatorial downwelling Kelvin wave
caused by heating and westerly wind differences enters the BoB rim along
the coast and aptly intensifies the cyclone such that the downwelling
Kevin wave and Rossby wave generated by its reflection deepen the
thermocline in the BoB. The favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions
in IP2 jointly and preferentially form far more SC activities from
Oct-Nov over the BoB compared to IP1.