Influence of hurricane wind field variability on real-time forecast
simulations of the coastal environment
Abstract
Dynamic conditions occur in the coastal ocean during severe storms.
Forecasting these conditions is challenging, and large-scale numerical
models require significant computing power. In this paper, we describe a
real-time modelling system (DUNEX-RT), developed in support of the
DUring Nearshore Event eXperiment (DUNEX) in North Carolina, USA. The
model is run with wave, current, and water level boundary conditions
from larger-scale models, and provides 36-hour forecasts of significant
wave height, depth-averaged velocity, and water levels every 6-hours
using Delft3D-SWAN. Observations and forecasts run at different times
are compared and communicated via an interactive website to verify model
performance in real-time and to visualize uncertainty from changing
inputs. Here, we evaluate model sensitivity to inputs from different
atmospheric hindcasts and forecasts for Hurricane Dorian (2019). The
real-time model had relatively low errors across the system, indicating
that this novel approach can be applied to forecast other areas of the
coastal ocean.