Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED): Emergent simplicity of tree size
distributions.
Abstract
Understanding how the terrestrial biomass will respond to perturbations
is currently a large source of uncertainty within ESMs. Cohort-based
demographic models have been a recent development of DGVMs that can
improve the representation of size-dependent interactions between the
environment and species normally seen in individual-based models while
removing stochastic characteristics within global runs. RED partitions
the population of a PFT into size classes, of an appropriate variable
(biomass, basal diameter) across the physiological range. Using a
biomass/basal-diameter spaced advection equation that accounts for
size-dependent scaling of the structural growth and mortality across the
classes, we are able to model how the population evolves over time. By
assuming a power scaling size-growth relationship with constant
mortality, RED derives a quasi-Weibull distribution for the forest
steady state. When compared to forest inventory data the solution
provides a realistic fit. By applying a boundary condition limiting
seedlings to open space, RED can derive solutions for the total
vegetation fraction, biomass, and other variables by only knowing two
parameters - the background ratio of mortality and growth and the
fraction of NPP going into seedling production. From this, we have shown
that RED can obtain realistic global outputs for biomass densities and
evaluatory metrics.The analytical solutions derived from the
foundational equations and assumptions of RED suggests an inherent
simplicity of the forest structure, with low competition between trees,
strong competition for seedlings, and size-independent mortality.
Divergence from the analytical solution could indicate a historic
disturbance. As RED allows for the representation of asymmetrical
mortality and growth, disturbances in which size is important can be
dynamically simulated. The theory and model allows for potential
insights into how ecosystems will respond to future increases in CO2 and
disturbances.