Observed Evidence of Springtime Cloud Influence on Regional Climate and
its Implication in Runoff Decline in Upper Colorado River Basin
Abstract
The sub-seasonal features of the annual trends of runoff and other
associated hydroclimatic variables in the upper Colorado River basin
(UCRB) are examined using multiple datasets from in-situ observations,
reanalysis, and modeling for early spring (February, March, and April),
given that about 58% of annual mean runoff decline from 1980 to 2018
stem from its decreases in the three months. Our analysis suggests that
the strong annual trends of hydroclimatic variables in March are more
statistically significant than other two months. While recent
observational studies attribute the declining runoff to regional warming
and precipitation decrease, we suggested, for the first time, that a
larger decreasing trend of the runoff in March is caused by the
declining cloud optical depth which induces further decrease in
precipitation and additional increase in temperature on top of climatic
warming. The recent cloud suppression likely results from stronger
subsidence and larger moisture flux divergence over southwestern United
States because of abnormal circulation patterns in varying climate, in
turn leading to drier atmosphere which is unfavorable for cloud
formation/development over the UCRB region. The cloud influence on the
runoff in March in the UCRB observed in this study implies the
importance of understanding sub-seasonal variations of hydroclimate in
the changing climate, as well as a need of future studies on the
response of circulation patterns to climate change at sub-seasonal level
and its implication on local hydroclimate.