Abstract
Recent advances in Earth observation data and computing ability create
exciting opportunities for national and global studies of human impacts
to water resources. But, with a lack of complete databases of artificial
levees, there remains a need to better understand how artificial levees
impact floodplain extent at regional and larger scales. Here, we
estimate river-floodplain disconnection in the contiguous United States
using an incomplete artificial levee database, machine learning
algorithms, and hydrogeomorphic floodplain delineation models. We tested
different topographic, land use, and spatial variables with different
machine learning techniques in a case study of seven geographically
diverse HUC8 basins before applying the technique at the national scale.
We found that a parsimonious random forest model without topographic
variables was 97% accurate. When applied to areas within a national
100-year hydrogeomorphic floodplain, the model indicated the potential
for more than 180,000 km of undocumented artificial levees, meaning that
the National Levee Database (NLD) is about 20% complete. More than 62%
of potential levees are concentrated in the Upper and Lower Mississippi
and Missouri basins. The stream order distribution of potential and NLD
levees are similar; however, potential levees are primarily located
along stream orders 3 and 6 while the NLD locations are along stream
orders 2, 3 and 4. Using this, we explored the national impacts of
artificial levees on floodplain extent by comparing two hydrogeomorphic
floodplains based on (1) an unmodified USGS 1 arc second DEM and (2) a
modified DEM with known and potential levees erased from the topography.
We found that the overall impact of artificial levee removal was to
shift the location of flooding. Over 30% of the CONUS 100-year
floodplain was cultivated or developed land use.