Revealing the impact of global heating on North Atlantic circulation
using transparent machine learning
Abstract
The North Atlantic ocean is key to climate through its role in heat
transport and storage. Climate models suggest that the circulation is
weakening but the physical drivers of this change are poorly
constrained. Here, the root mechanisms are revealed with the explicitly
transparent machine learning method Tracking global Heating with Ocean
Regimes (THOR). Addressing the fundamental question of the existence of
dynamical coherent regions, THOR identifies these and their link to
distinct currents and mechanisms such as the formation regions of deep
water masses, and the location of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic
Current. Beyond a black box approach, THOR is engineered to elucidate
its source of predictive skill rooted in physical understanding. A
labeled dataset is engineered using an explicitly interpretable equation
transform and k-means application to model data, allowing theoretical
inference. A multilayer perceptron is then trained, explaining its skill
using a combination of layerwise relevance propagation and theory. With
abrupt CO2 quadrupling, the circulation weakens due to a shift in deep
water formation regions, a northward shift of the Gulf stream and an
eastwards shift in the North Atlantic Current. If CO2 is increased 1%
yearly, similar but weaker patterns emerge influenced by natural
variability. THOR is scalable and applicable to a range of models using
only the ocean depth, dynamic sea level and wind stress, and could
accelerate the analysis and dissemination of climate model data. THOR
constitutes a step towards trustworthy machine learning called for
within oceanography and beyond.