Precipitation in Northeast Mexico Primarily Controlled by the Relative
Warming of Atlantic SSTs
Abstract
Reconstructing hydroclimate over the Common Era is essential for
understanding the dominant mechanisms of precipitation change and
improving climate model projections, which currently suggest Northeast
Mexico will become drier in the future. Tree-ring reconstructions have
suggested regional rainfall is primarily controlled by Pacific sea
surface temperatures (SST). However, tree ring records tend to reflect
winter-spring rainfall, and thus may not accurately record total annual
precipitation. Using the first multiproxy speleothem record spanning the
last millennium, combined with results from an atmospheric general
circulation model, we demonstrate mean annual rainfall in Northeast
Mexico is highly sensitive to Atlantic SST variability. Our findings
suggest precipitation in Northeast Mexico may increase in the future in
response to the relative warming of Tropical North Atlantic SSTs.