Abstract
Environmental decision- and policy-making must contend with uncertainty
about the future that can hinder proactive environmental decisions,
forcing environmental managers into reactive postures. To help prevent
this, a variety of methods exist for exploring potential environmental
futures and associated uncertainties. Producing environmental futures
benefit those involved by supporting a systems-level understanding and
expanding thinking beyond “business as usual”. We review environmental
and non-environmental programs that use indicators to inform
environmental futures for decision- and policy-making. Review objectives
are to: 1) identify and discuss key environmental futures program
attributes, and 2) propose program attributes that support their
successful uptake in decision processes. Attributes discussed include
purpose and audience, methods, addressing uncertainty and assumptions,
relationship to indicator programs, how program values and biases are
addressed, the role of goals, and how success is measured and defined.
We conclude with recommendations for environmental futures programs that
can be successfully integrated into environmental decisions. These
include: combining multiple environmental futures methods to provide
complementary insights or highlight inconsistencies in assumptions,
including a schematic of assumptions and drivers, and defining success
criteria, whenever possible. These can help increase the acceptance of
environmental futures products in decision-making and increase their
short-term and long-term contributions.