In this study, we investigate the relationship between mid-Atlantic
tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO).
This is done by using a high-atmoshperic-resolution ensemble prediction
system based on the ECMWF operational model (Project Minerva) to compile
the statistics of these rare events, and the velocity potential MJO
(VPM) index to define the phase and amplitude of the MJO. We find that
these TC landfalls are most likely to occur during VPM phases 1-3. At
shorter lead times, phase 1 is strongly favored, with some contribution
of phase 3. At longer lead times (between the 6- and 12-day leads),
phases 1 and 2 consistently show significant TC landfall frequencies.
This result suggests a potential for extended-range predictions of the
mid-Atlantic TC landfall risk based on the phase of the MJO.