Demonstration of Satellite-Chemical Transport Model Framework to
Estimate Near-Real-Time PM2.5 Composition
Abstract
The Global Burden of Disease attributes millions of premature deaths to
ambient air pollution each year, making it one of the largest
environmental health risks faced by society. This mortality is largely
due to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). In
the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency estimated that
50.5 million people lived in counties with PM2.5
concentrations above the level of the National Ambient Air Quality
Standards in 2020. PM2.5 levels can be derived from
satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements providing
comprehensive spatial and temporal coverage. However, the chemical
composition of PM2.5 affects the mechanisms by which
adverse health effects occur, and thus there is a pressing need for
linking satellite data with high-resolution atmospheric modeling of
PM2.5 composition. In order to better inform public
health policy and decision-making, we aim to estimate near-real-time
(NRT) surface PM2.5 composition informed by satellite
AOD measurements and chemical transport modeling for the first time.
Here, we demonstrate this framework for hindcast estimates in year 2021.
NRT AOD is collected from multi-source remote sensing data including
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; Aqua and Terra),
the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS; Dark Target and
Deep Blue), and Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). The data
obtained from these products are combined into daily, 10-km AOD
estimates and used to scale simulated total PM2.5.
GEOS-Chem (v13.1.2) nested regional simulations are run over North
America with GEOS-Forward Processing (FP) assimilated meteorology at
resolution 0.25° lat. x0.3125° lon. (approximately 20-30km) to simulate
daily AOD and get an initial estimate of PM2.5
composition. This estimate is interpolated into the 10-km grid and
multiplied with the satellite-adjusted total PM2.5
composition to produce concentrations of each PM2.5
species. This satellite-constrained chemical transport model framework
estimates of PM2.5 will ultimately be evaluated against
observations and compared to estimates using standard satellite products
to inform future use of this framework to predict ambient air pollution
health risks in true near-real-time.