Capability of TEC correlation analysis and deceleration at propagation
velocities of MSTID: Preseismic ionospheric anomalies before the large
earthquakes
Abstract
Capability of TEC ’s CoRrelation Analysis (CRA) (Iwata and Umeno, 2016)
for detecting preseismic anomaly is explained from the view point of the
increase in signal-to-noise ratio to {\it amplify}
preseismic TEC’s small anomaly signals with multiple sensor data
synchronization and correlation to respond to all the criticisms
proposed recently by Ikuta et al. 2021. Furthermore, deceleration at
propagation velocities of MSTID before the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake
firstly observed by CRA as velocity reduction of MSTID propagation in
the F Layer of the ionosphere is then elucidated as a candidate of
preseismic anomalies. This paper presents three models to explain its
physical relationship with preseismic anomalies before large
earthquakes. In particular, Model 1 predicts that the 35 m/s change in
MSTID propagation velocities estimated by TEC’s CRA requires
0.58*10^{-3} V/m electric field change in the F Layer ionosphere,
which is almost consistent with the estimation (Kelley et. al. 2017) in
that the E*B/B^2 rift of 12 m/s for dislocations of electrons
requires 0.5*10^{-3} V/m electric field in the E Layer to explain
Heki’s finding of TEC anomaly behavior before the Tohoku-Oki earthquake.
The \(10000\) times amplified effect of
weak signals such as 0.58 mV/m in electrical field to affect MSTID
propagation velocity change as is firstly observed by Iwata and Umeno,
2017 by CRA which has significant amplified capability. Contrary to the
claim by Ikuta et al. 2021, TEC’s correlation anomalies detected (Iwata
and Umeno 2016 and 2017) already provided supporting evidences that
physical preseismic anomalies really exist.