Advancing Regional Flood Mapping in a Changing Climate: A HAND-Based
Approach for New Jersey with Innovations in Catchment Analysis
Abstract
Regional flood mapping poses computational and spatial heterogeneity
challenges, exacerbated by climate change-induced uncertainties. This
study focuses on creating a state-wide flood mapping solution with
enhanced accuracy and computational speed to support regional flooding
hazard analysis and the assessment of climate change, using New Jersey
as a case study. The Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND) framework was
employed for large-scale flood mapping. The model was validated against
high water marks (HWMs) collected after Hurricane Irene. Based on the
National Water Model (NWM), synthetic rating curves in HAND were
calibrated by tuning Manning’s roughness, aligning the predicted and
observed flood depths. The roughness values were generalized across the
state from the validated water basins to the ungauged ones, using a
multivariate regression with the hydrologic and geographic information.
To map the future climate-change-induced flooding, a correlation between
NOAA historical precipitation totals and NWM flow data from 2010-2020
was established to link precipitation and runoff. This study also
invented a novel method for correcting catchment discontinuities,
inherent in the HAND model, based on a computer vision scheme, the Sobel
filter. The modeling results show that average and worst-case storm
events have the potential to increase 10-50% in the state, where
mountain areas and major river banks would be exposed to this impact
more significantly.