Constraint on Net Long Term Climate Feedback to Emerge From Satellite
Observed Internal Variability by Mid 2040s
- Alejandro Uribe,
- Frida A.-M. Bender,
- Thorsten Mauritsen
Thorsten Mauritsen
Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University
Author ProfileAbstract
Climate feedbacks are vital in shaping the extent of global warming.
While directly observing climate feedbacks is hardly feasible, it is
possible to establish a relationship between them and
top-of-the-atmosphere flux changes in response to natural fluctuations
in surface temperature. In this study, we explore this method to
potentially constrain climate feedbacks in climate models using
observations. Our findings reveal significant correlations for longwave
and shortwave feedbacks within a period of 14 years. This allows for
utilizing satellite observations and reanalysis to show that models
exhibiting moderate negative longwave and moderate positive shortwave
internal variability feedbacks demonstrate better consistency with
observations. The emergence of the relationship for the net feedback
requires a longer time, about 60 years. Continuous satellite records
need to be maintained minimum until the mid-2040s before estimates of
observed net internal variability feedback can be used to constrain net
forced climate feedback, and thereby climate sensitivity.13 Jul 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive 20 Jul 2023Published in ESS Open Archive