Abstract
Marine heatwave (MHW) characteristics - such as frequency, intensity and
duration - are increasing, largely due to global warming. However, while
corresponding marine cold spell (MCS) characteristics have decreased
over most regions, importantly, concomitant changes in MHW and MCS
characteristics remain unclear. Here, we provide a comparative global
assessment of these changes based on satellite sea surface temperature
(SST) observations over 1982-2020. Across the planet, we find distinct
differences in mean MHW and MCS metrics. Furthermore, decreasing trends
in MCS characteristics are not necessarily aligned with increasing
trends in MHW characteristics. While differences in intensity trends are
mainly explained by SST variance trends, differences in exposure trends
are less clear. Overall, decreasing MCS exposure and intensities are
found to be largely driven by warming SST, rather than changes to SST
variance, so it is expected that MCS will continue to diminish in their
frequency, intensity and duration under global warming.