Seven Ways to Configure WRF for Simulating Land-Water Interfaces, and
How to Pick Just One
Abstract
The Great Lakes create complex meteorological conditions that influence
air quality throughout the region. Lake-breeze circulation, lake-induced
low level jets, shoreline boundary layer processes, and photochemistry
at the land-water interface affect the magnitude and timing of regional
ground-level ozone episodes during the summer months. We simulated nine
different Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF) sensitivity runs for
a two-week period in June 2016 during which high surface ozone
concentrations were observed in the Lake Michigan region. The WRF
simulations tested various combinations of physical options, forcing
data, sea surface temperature integration, and nudging options for three
nested modeling domains. Given the multiple model simulations, we needed
a way to select the best WRF configuration for simulating the key
atmospheric physical processes that drive ground level ozone formation
in the region. We developed a new diagnostic approach for identifying
the best WRF model configuration for our application. The approach uses
statistical significance testing for comparing multiple model
simulations for different periods in the diurnal cycle. We will present
how this diagnostic approach is used for understanding the differences
between WRF simulations and for building our confidence in selecting a
configuration to support regulatory air quality modeling applications in
the Midwest.