Frictional Segmentation of the Chilean Megathrust from a Multivariate
Analysis of Geophysical, Geological and Geodetic Data
Abstract
Great subduction earthquakes rupture similar regions of the megathrust
during successive events separated by centuries. Mapping these regions
(asperities) and their boundaries (barriers) is important for our
understanding of processes controlling megathrust segmentation and for
seismic hazard assessment. We present a formal seismic segmentation
model of the Chile Margin derived from a multivariate analysis of
gravity anomalies, basal friction from critical taper and interplate
locking from GPS velocities. These proxies integrate over timescales of
10 to 10 years and we analyze their combined spatial covariance using
Principal Component Analysis (PCA), from which the Empirical Orthogonal
Functions (EOFs) and Principal Components (PCs) are extracted. We find
that the 1 and 1+2 PCA modes explain 44% and 67% of the total
variance, respectively, suggesting a high degree of spatial correlation.
Comparing our results with rupture areas of earthquakes and using the
rate-and-state friction theory, we infer that trench-perpendicular PCs
reflect the limits of the velocity-weakening (VW) seismogenic zone.
Polarity changes in along-trench EOFs (mostly for gravity) are related
to changes between unstable and conditionally-stable frictional regimes
inside the VW zone and we used them to define the boundaries of 17
unitary segments. These segments correlate with first-order tectonic
features of the Andes at >10-km scales as well as with
zones of multi-segment ruptures at 10-km scale. We analyze the combined
influence of subducting and upper-plate geologic features on the nature
of persistent seismic barriers. Our results have implications for
understanding seismotectonic processes along the Andean margin and
elsewhere