Comparative Impact Assessment of Climate Change and Land-Use Alteration
on Decadal Water Balance Components: A Case Study on The Baitarani River
Basin, Odisha
Abstract
Water Balance Components (WBCs), the most fundamental processes of a
river basin, are getting disturbed by climate change and land-use
alterations in the present scenario. These two factors are the major
driving force behind the spatio-temporal variation of the WBCs that
creates an alarming concern for fulfilling water demand by different
sectors. The popular hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool
(SWAT) is applied to the Baitarani River basin (12,095
km2) of eastern India for evaluating the dominance of
the above factors on the WBCs deviations at a decadal scale (1980-1989,
1990-1999, and 2000-2009). A quantile regression-based stochastic
approach has been used to analyze the uncertainties resulting from
different simulations accounting the combined responses of climate
change and land-use alterations as well as model parameters. However,
such analysis has not been explored more for the present study area. The
model performance results reveal that the statistical performance
indices (NSE and R2) are within the acceptable limit.
The WBCs in terms of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, lateral flow,
water yield, soil moisture storage, and deep aquifer recharge has been
quantified at a decadal scale from the simulated model outcomes. The
result shows that the water yield component is more (680.36 mm) for
mid-decade (1990-1999) as compared to other decades, which is favourable
to fulfill sectoral water demand. Further, the uncertainty analysis
explains that climate change impact plays a vital role in WBCs
variation. The developed approach can portray the variability of WBCs of
other river basins that are vulnerable to climate change. The outcomes
of this study can be used to maintain an appropriate balance between
water availability and demand to avoid water scarcity. Keywords: Water
balance components; Climate change; Land-use Alterations, Brahmani;
Baitarani