A generalized approach to generate synthetic short-to-medium range
hydro-meteorological forecasts
Abstract
Forecast informed reservoir operations holds great promise as a soft
pathway to improve water resources system performance. Methods for
generating synthetic forecasts of hydro-meteorological variables are
crucial for robust validation of this approach, as numerical weather
prediction hindcasts are only available for a relatively short period
(10-40 years) that is insufficient for assessing risk related to
forecast-informed operations during extreme events. We develop a
generalized error model for synthetic forecast generation that is
applicable to a range of forecasted variables used in water resources
management. The approach samples from the distribution of forecast
errors over the available hindcast period and adds them to long records
of observed data to generate synthetic forecasts. The approach utilizes
the flexible Skew Generalized Error Distribution (SGED) to model
marginal distributions of forecast errors that can exhibit
heteroskedastic, auto-correlated, and non-Gaussian behavior. An
empirical copula is used to capture covariance between variables and
forecast lead times and across space. We demonstrate the method for
medium-range forecasts across Northern California in two case studies
for 1) streamflow and 2) temperature and precipitation, which are based
on hindcasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System
(HEFS) and the NCEP GEFS/R V2 climate model, respectively. The case
studies highlight the flexibility of the model and its ability to
emulate space-time structures in forecasts at scales critical for flood
management. The proposed method is generalizable to other locations and
computationally efficient, enabling fast generation of long synthetic
forecast ensembles that are appropriate for water resources risk
analysis.