Geodetic Coupling Models as Constraints on Stochastic Earthquake
Ruptures: An Example Application to PTHA in Cascadia
Abstract
Current stochastic rupture modeling techniques do not consider the
influence of first order fault zone characteristics. One such key
characteristic is fault slip deficit or inter-seismic locking which has
shown correlation between areas of high coupling and areas of greater
slip in many recent large ruptures globally. Therefore, it is reasonable
to assume that it should be considered as prior information in rupture
modeling. Here, we first present a mathematical formalism to introduce
locking models as prior information into stochastic rupture modeling. We
then focus on how introducing slip deficit information into the
stochastic rupture models influences slip distributions for the Cascadia
Subduction Zone (CSZ). We compare rupture models created with two end
member models of locking, one with a fully locked zone extending to the
trench and another with locking deeper downdip, along with models
created without a prior knowledge of locking. Large variations occur and
correlate well with areas with the largest differences in slip deficit.
To exemplify their impacts, the ruptures are then used for probabilistic
tsunami hazard assessment. We find that overall the tsunami amplitudes
generated are much more hazardous in the northern extent of the CSZ
where differences in locking distribution are more prevalent. Although
large uncertainties are present in accuracy of locking, imposing either
constraint created very different hazard estimations when compared to
the hazards where no prior locking information was used. This highlights
the necessity to expand seafloor instrumentation and to consider first
order fault information like locking in future authoritative hazard
assessments.