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An Inventory of Global Rocket Launch Emissions and Projected Near-Future Impacts on Stratospheric Ozone
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  • Tyler F. M. Brown,
  • Laura Revell,
  • Michele T. Bannister,
  • Timofei Sukhodolov,
  • Eugene Rozanov
Tyler F. M. Brown
University of Canterbury
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Laura Revell
University of Canterbury

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Michele T. Bannister
University of Canterbury
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Timofei Sukhodolov
PMOD/WRC
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Eugene Rozanov
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center
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Abstract

The rate of rocket launches is accelerating, driven by the rapid global development of the space industry. Rocket launches emit chemically and radiatively active species into the stratosphere, where they impact ozone. We create a per-vehicle inventory of geographically-resolved stratospheric emissions for 2019, accounting for flight profiles and all major fuel types in active use. The inventory is used to simulate an intensive near-future scenario (120 launches/year at 17 current spaceports) with a chemistry-climate model. These gas-phase rocket emissions produce an overall 0.5% decrease in global annual-mean total column ozone. Compared to a reference scenario, Antarctic springtime ozone decreases by up to 9%. Arctic springtime ozone decreases by up to 5%; equivalent to half of the depletion observed over this region due to chlorofluorocarbons in the late 20th century. Our findings reiterate the need for assessment and international cooperation regarding the impact of space industrialization on Earth’s systems.