An Inventory of Global Rocket Launch Emissions and Projected Near-Future
Impacts on Stratospheric Ozone
Abstract
The rate of rocket launches is accelerating, driven by the rapid global
development of the space industry. Rocket launches emit chemically and
radiatively active species into the stratosphere, where they impact
ozone. We create a per-vehicle inventory of geographically-resolved
stratospheric emissions for 2019, accounting for flight profiles and all
major fuel types in active use. The inventory is used to simulate an
intensive near-future scenario (120 launches/year at 17 current
spaceports) with a chemistry-climate model. These gas-phase rocket
emissions produce an overall 0.5% decrease in global annual-mean total
column ozone. Compared to a reference scenario, Antarctic springtime
ozone decreases by up to 9%. Arctic springtime ozone decreases by up to
5%; equivalent to half of the depletion observed over this region due
to chlorofluorocarbons in the late 20th century. Our findings reiterate
the need for assessment and international cooperation regarding the
impact of space industrialization on Earth’s systems.