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\begin{document}

\title{On the inference of tsunami uncertainties from landslide run-out
observations}



\author[1]{Thomas Zengaffinen-Morris}%
\author[2]{Roger Urgeles}%
\author[3]{Finn Lovholt}%
\affil[1]{Expert Analytics}%
\affil[2]{Institut de Ciències del Mar (CSIC)}%
\affil[3]{NGI}%


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  \date{May 24, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) due to submarine landslides
is much less developed than PTHA for earthquake sources. This is partly
because of less constrained data on source probability, and partly due
to lack of knowledge related to the tsunami generation process due to
landslide dynamics. This study provides a basis for estimating the
uncertainty related to landslide dynamics for PTHA from submarine
landslides based on a new landslide database in the Gulf of Cadiz. The
establishment of this new database is described herein. We use submarine
landslide run-out statistics from this database to calibrate landslide
parameters and related uncertainties using the cohesive landslide model
BingClaw. In turn, coupling the landslide motion to tsunami genesis is
used to characterise the inferred tsunami uncertainties. Important
parameters that can explain the large tsunami uncertainties are the
initial water depth of the landslide and the slope, the landslide
volume, and the initial yield strength of the landslide material.
Kinematic properties such as the initial landslide acceleration or the
Froude number are found to strongly correlate with tsunami genesis. In
this study, we show how the fitting process of numerical models
landslide run-out can be casted into uncertainty in maximum sea surface
elevations heights. This can in turn be an to a future PTHA for spanning
uncertainty ranges due to the landslide dynamics on tsunami-genesis,
constrained by landslide run-out data.%
\end{abstract}%



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