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Lulu Zhao
Public Documents
1
Interpretable Machine Learning to Forecast SEP Events for Solar Cycle 23
Spiridon Kasapis
and 5 more
July 28, 2021
We use machine learning methods to predict whether an active region (AR) which produces flares will lead to a solar energetic particle (SEP) event using Space-Weather Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) Active Region Patches (SMARPs). This new data product is derived from maps of the solar surface magnetic field taken by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) aboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). We survey the SMARP active regions associated with flares that appear on the solar disk between June 5, 1996 and August 14, 2010, label those that produced SEPs as positive and the rest as negative. The AR SMARP features that correspond to each flare are used to train two different types of machine learning methods, the support vector machines (SVMs) and the regression models. The results show that the SMARP data can predict whether a flare will lead to an SEP with accuracy (ACC) {less than or equal to}0.72{plus minus}0.12 while allowing for a competitive leading time of 55.3{plus minus}28.6 minutes for forecasting the SEP events.