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Anomalous Meltwater from Ice Sheets and Ice Shelves is a Historical Forcing
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  • Gavin A. Schmidt,
  • Anastasia Romanou,
  • Lettie Roach,
  • Ken Mankoff,
  • Qian li,
  • Craig Daniel Rye,
  • Maxwell Kelley,
  • John C Marshall,
  • Julius J.M. Busecke
Gavin A. Schmidt
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Anastasia Romanou
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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Lettie Roach
Columbia University
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Ken Mankoff
Automona Integra LLC
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Qian li
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Craig Daniel Rye
Columbia University
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Maxwell Kelley
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Center for Climate Systems Research
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John C Marshall
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
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Julius J.M. Busecke
Columbia University
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Abstract

Recent mass loss from ice sheets and ice shelves is now persistent and prolonged enough that it impacts downstream oceanographic conditions. To demonstrate this, we use an ensemble of coupled GISS-E2.1-G simulations forced with historical estimates of anomalous freshwater, in addition to other climate forcings, from 1990 through 2019. In this ensemble there are detectable differences in zonal-mean sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice in the Southern Ocean, and in regional sea level around Antarctica and in the western North Atlantic. These impacts mostly improve the model’s representation of historical changes, including reversing the forced trends in Southern Ocean surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice. The changes in SST may have implications for estimates of the SST pattern effect on climate sensitivity and for cloud feedbacks. We conclude that the changes are sufficiently large that these drivers should be included in all-forcing historical simulations in coupled model intercomparisons.
26 Sep 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
30 Sep 2023Published in ESS Open Archive