One model suits all: data-driven rapid flood prediction with catchment
generalizability using convolutional neural networks
Abstract
Data-driven and machine learning models have recently received
increasing interest to resolve the bottleneck of computational speed
faced by various physically-based simulations. A few studies have
explored the application of these models to develop new, and fast,
applications for fluvial and pluvial flood extent mapping, and flood
susceptibility assessment. However, most studies have focused on model
development for specific catchment areas, drainage networks or gauge
stations. Hence, their results cannot be directly reused to other
contexts unless extra data are available and the models are further
trained. This study explores the generalizability of convolutional
neural networks (CNNs) as flood prediction models. The study proposes a
CNN-based model that can be reused in different catchment areas with
different topography once the model is trained. The study investigates
two options, patch- and resizing-based options, to process catchment
areas of different sizes and different boundary shapes. The results
showed that the CNN-based model generalizes well on “unseen” catchment
areas with promising prediction accuracy and significantly less
computational time when compared to physically-based models. The
obtained results also suggest that the patch-based option is more
effective than the resizing-based option in terms of prediction
accuracy. In addition, all experiments have shown that the prediction of
flow velocity is more accurate than water depth, suggesting that the
water accumulation is more sensitive to global elevation information
than flow velocity. Therefore, one can suggest that CNN-based models for
flood prediction should consider large-size inputs and have large
receptive field architecture to achieve a better performance.