Shifts in the mean and extreme precipitation at the end-of-century in
the South American Monsoon as projected by the CESM Large Ensemble
Abstract
Similar to many areas of the globe, South America is under a monsoon
regime. The Amazon rain-forest is one of the regions critical for this
regime, known as the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). Besides being
crucial to the Earth’s carbon budget, the Amazon is also important for
SAMS development. During SAMS onset, the trade winds intensify and a
northwesterly low-level jet, known as the South American Low Level Jet
(SALLJ), is formed east of the Andes. Moisture originating in the
Atlantic Ocean is recycled and reinvigorated over the Amazon and carried
by the SALLJ to continental and subtropical South America. In this
project, we analyze the projected changes in precipitation and extreme
events of rainfall over South America by the end of the 21st century
using the CESM Large Ensemble Project (LENS). LENS is able to reproduce
the important elements of the SAMS. We find that wet season rainfall is
projected to increase over the east coast and central South America. The
SALLJ is projected to become stronger, especially during late wet
season, and carry more moisture to subtropical South America. As a
result, moisture convergence between the SALLJ and the South Atlantic
Subtropical High increases, creating the conditions to rainfall over
Central and Southeastern South America. Meanwhile, Amazon is projected
to become dryer during both dry and wet seasons. As a result,
rain-forest productivity is reduced during late dry season in Southern
Amazon. As vegetation struggles to save water, evapotranspiration, and
consequently surface latent heat flux are reduced. These factors have
been suggested as crucial to SAMS initiation and their reduction is
responsible for a delay in SAMS onset by the end of the century. Extreme
wet events are projected to become more frequent, especially over
Northeastern Brazil, Southern Brazil and Uruguay. As dry season rainfall
is reduced in all of the regions analyzed, drought events are projected
to become more frequent and longer over both the wettest (Northern
Amazon) and the driest (Northeastern Brazil) regions analyzed.