Abstract
Surge-type glaciers are present in many cold environments in the world.
These glaciers experience a dramatic increase in velocity over short
time periods, the surge, followed by an extended period of slow
movement, the quiescence. The detailed processes that control this
intermittent behaviour remain elusive. We develop a machine learning
framework to classify surge-type glaciers, based on their location,
exposure, geometry, surface mass balance and runoff. We apply this
approach to the Svalbard archipelago, a region with a relatively
homogeneous climate. We compare the performance of logistic regression,
random forest, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning
models that we apply to a newly combined database of glaciers in
Svalbard. Based on the most accurate model, XGBoost, we compute surge
probabilities along glacier centerlines and quantify the relative
importance of several controlling features. Results show that the
surface and bed slopes, ice thickness, glacier width, surface mass
balance and runoff along glacier centerlines are the most significant
features explaining surge probability for glaciers in Svalbard. A
thicker and wider glacier with a low surface slope has a higher
probability to be classified as surge-type, which is in good agreement
with the existing theories of surging. Finally, we build a probability
map of surge-type glaciers in Svalbard. Our methodology could be
extended to classify surge-type glaciers in other areas of the world.