Stochastic Decadal Projections of Colorado River Streamflow and
Reservoir Pool Elevations Conditioned on Temperature Projections
Abstract
Decadal (~10-years) scale flow projections in the
Colorado River Basin (CRB) are increasingly important for water
resources management and planning of its reservoir system. Physical
models – Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) – do not have skill
beyond interannual time scales. However, Global Climate Models have good
skill in projecting decadal temperatures. This, combined with the
sensitivity of CRB flows to temperature from recent studies, motivate
the research question - can skill in decadal temperature projections be
translated to operationally skillful flow projections and consequently,
water resources management? To explore this, we used temperature
projections from the Community Earth System Model – Decadal Prediction
Large Ensemble (CESM-DPLE) along with past basin runoff efficiency as
covariates in a Random Forest (RF) method to project ensembles of
multi-year mean flow at the key aggregate gauge of Lees Ferry, Arizona.
RF streamflow projections outperformed both ESP and climatology in a
1982-2017 hindcast, as measured by ranked probability skill score. The
projections were disaggregated to monthly and sub-basin scales to drive
the Colorado River Mid-term Modeling System (CRMMS) to generate
ensembles of water management variables. The projections of pool
elevations in Lakes Powell and Mead – the two largest U.S. reservoirs
that are critical for water resources management in the basin – were
found to reduce the hindcast median root mean square error by up to -20
and -30% at lead times of 48- and 60-months, respectively, relative to
projections generated from ESP. This suggests opportunities for
enhancing water resources management in the CRB and potentially
elsewhere.