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Deep Learning as a Tool for Rapidly Assessing Pore-Water Pressures on Hillslopes
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  • Elijah Orland,
  • Joshua Roering,
  • Matthew Thomas,
  • Benjamin Mirus,
  • Brian Collins
Elijah Orland
University of Oregon

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Joshua Roering
University of Oregon
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Matthew Thomas
USGS
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Benjamin Mirus
USGS
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Brian Collins
USGS
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Abstract

We apply deep learning to a synthetic near-surface hydrological response dataset of 4.4 million infiltration scenarios to determine conditions for the onset of positive pore-water pressures. This provides a rapid assessment of hydrologic conditions of potentially hazardous hillslopes where mass wasting is prevalent, and sidesteps the computationally expensive process of solving complex, highly non-linear equations. Each scenario considers antecedent soil moisture and storm depth with varying soil properties based on those measured at a USGS site in the East Bay Hills, CA, USA. Our model combines antecedent soil wetness and storm conditions with soil-hydraulic properties and predicts a binary output of whether or not positive pore pressures were generated. After parameterization, pore-water pressure conditions can be returned for any combination of antecedent soil moisture content and storm depth values. Similar to previous work, a deep learning model reduces computational cost: processing time is decreased by more than an order of magnitude for 1D simulated infiltration scenarios while maintaining high levels of accuracy. While the physical relevance and utility behind process-based numerical modeling cannot be replaced, the comparatively reduced computational cost of deep learning allows for rapid modeling of pore-water pressure conditions where solving complex, highly non-linear equations would otherwise be required. Furthermore, comparing the solution of a deep learning model with a hydrological model exemplifies how similar results can be produced through highly divergent mathematical relationships. This provides a unique opportunity to understand which variables are most relevant for the prediction of positive pore-water pressures on hillslopes, and can represent landslide-relevant hydrologic conditions for hillslopes where rapid analysis is imperative for informing potential hazard mitigation efforts. Ultimately, a calibrated deep learning model may reduce the need for computationally expensive physics-based modeling, which are often time and resource intensive, while providing critical statistical insight for the onset of hazardous conditions in landslide-prone areas.