Abstract
One possible human response to climate change and other environmental
stresses is migration. However, migration is complex, multi-causal
phenomenon, and the complexity of human migration poses a challenge for
researchers who aim to study the effects of environmental changes on
population mobility. This project aims to understand how changing
environmental conditions and livelihood opportunities impact migration
decisions in coastal Bangladesh. We are developing an original
agent-based model (ABM) that combines stylized environmental change
dynamics with livelihood to understand how these dynamics impact
migration decisions as well as what feedbacks may exist between them.
The ABM uses agents to represent households, which consist of
individuals, within a single origin community. At each step of the
model, the household assesses the expected utility of different
livelihood options within the community for each of its members,
including agricultural work on the household’s land (if any), seeking
paid employment within the community, and pursuing non-agricultural
livelihood activities. After assessing opportunities within the
community, households will decide whether or not a household member
should seek opportunities outside the community. The model imposes
stochastic droughts that impact crop yields. We report preliminary
results from this model, comparing simulated migration patterns to
empirical observations. Future work will incorporate more complex and
psychologically realistic decision-making heuristics, as well as diverse
destination locations and the possibility of return migration.