An umbrella cloud model to explain thickness and grain size variation in
tephra deposits: Pululagua (Ecuador)
Abstract
Tephra fallout hazard assessment relies on accurate reconstruction of
eruption source parameters (ESPs) from tephra deposits. Models of tephra
transport and sedimentation from a volcanic plume use ESPs (e.g. erupted
mass, column height, mass eruption rate, total grain size distribution)
that characterize the processes and the properties of the plume,
particles and the atmosphere. We use Tephra2, an Eulerian model of
tephra dispersion that simplifies atmospheric dynamics to reconstruct
ESPs from mapped deposits. Tephra2 works well in reconstructing ESPs for
some deposits, however it does not account for the geometry (i.e. shape)
of umbrella clouds of large explosive eruptions. Since the accumulation
of particles on the ground is calculated with respect to their release
point in the atmosphere, we hypothesize that a modification of Tephra2
that accounts for umbrella clouds would better explain the deposit
variations observed in the field associated with some large eruptions.
We developed a Python version of Tephra2 that uses the advection –
diffusion equation to calculate the mass accumulation of tephra released
from an umbrella cloud. We tested three different geometries (i.e.
point, vertical line and horizontal disk) against field data from the
deposit of the 2450 BP Pululagua (Ecuador) eruption that occurred in
absence of wind. Our preliminary results indicate three important
aspects of tephra modeling: i) a disk geometry characterizing an
umbrella cloud fits the data better than the line and point sources, the
last two being highly sensitive to the atmospheric diffusion
coefficient; ii) a disk geometry is sensitive to the volume of tephra
and the radius of the disk and, iii) different discretization of disk
geometries show little sensitivity in deposit geometry with change in
the release height, suggesting that disk radius is a more sensitive
parameter in modeling large umbrella clouds than the release point or
release height. Since large explosive eruptions are characterized by
large laterally spreading umbrella clouds even when advected by wind and
the umbrella diameter is controlled by eruption rate, as is plume height
in vertical plumes,, we suggest the modeling of large deposits with
alternative models of the cloud geometries is an important step in
analysis of ESPs associated with mapped deposits.