Estimation of Extraterrestrial Intelligent Civilizations and Attributes
per Exoplanetary Continuum through Algorithmic Simulation and
Civilization Modeling
Abstract
In the field of Astrobiology, a quantitative approach has not been made
to predict the number of extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations that
may have existed on a habitable exoplanet as well their corresponding
properties, such as intelligence, lifespan, and recovery time. Prior
research indicates that numerous planetary systems within the Milky Way
Galaxy are of over six billion years in age, implying many exoplanets,
if sustainable to life, may have had several cycles of civilizations
emergence and self-destruction, suggesting the ruins of advanced
civilizations should be commonplace within the galaxy. We investigate
this problem by utilizing statistical algorithmic simulations to predict
and estimate the number of civilizations (both future and extinct) that
may arise within an exoplanetary continuum, further generating the
accompanying characteristics of said civilizations. Within the model,
factors such as self-induced extinction/destruction, natural
civilization decay, planetary disasters, and civilization rediscovery
have been incorporated to examine the pathways a civilization can
encounter. Our results corroborate the notion that on many of the older
exoplanets in our galaxy, civilizations may have existed, however most
have ultimately died out within a short period, further limiting the
search for current extraterrestrial intelligence, but strengthening the
approach of interstellar archeology.