Satellite observations reveal thirteen years of reservoir filling
strategies, operating rules, and hydrological alterations in the Upper
Mekong River Basin
Abstract
The hydropower fleet built in the Upper Mekong River, or Lancang,
currently consists of eleven mainstream dams that can control about 55%
of the annual flow to Northern Thailand and Laos. The operations of this
fleet have become a source of controversy between China and downstream
countries, with these dams often considered the culprit for droughts and
other externalities. Assessing their actual impact is a challenging task
because of the chronic lack of data on reservoir storage and operations.
To overcome this challenge, we focus on the ten largest reservoirs and
leverage satellite observations to infer 13-year time series of monthly
storage variations. Specifically, we use area-storage curves (derived
from a Digital Elevation Model) and time series of water surface area,
which we estimate from Landsat images through a novel algorithm that
removes the effects of clouds and other disturbances. We also use
satellite radar altimetry data (Jason) to validate the results obtained
from satellite imagery. Our results describe the evolution of the
hydropower system and highlight the pivotal role played by Xiaowan and
Nuozhadu reservoirs, which make up to ~85% of the total
system’s storage in the Lancang River Basin. We show that these two
reservoirs were filled in only two years, and that their operations did
not change in response to the drought that occurred in the region in
2019-2020. Deciphering these operating strategies could help enrich
existing monitoring tools and hydrological models, thereby supporting
riparian countries in the design of more cooperative water-energy
policies.