The eastern subpolar North Atlantic upper ocean salinity undergoes decadal fluctuations. A large fresh anomaly event occurred during 2012--2016. Using the ECCO state estimate, we diagnose and compare mechanisms of this low salinity event with that of the 1990s fresh anomaly event. To avoid erroneous interpretations of physical mechanisms due to reference salinity values in the freshwater budget, we perform a salt mass content budget analysis of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. It shows that the recent fresh anomaly occurs due to the circulation of anomalous salinity by mean currents entering the eastern subpolar basin from its western boundary via the North Atlantic Current. This is in contrast to the early 1990s, when the dominant mechanism governing the fresh anomaly was the transport of the mean salinity field by anomalous currents across the southern boundary of the subpolar North Atlantic.

A description and assessment of the first release of the Arctic Subpolar gyre sTate Estimate (ASTE_R1), a data-constrained ocean-sea ice model-data synthesis is presented. ASTE_R1 has a nominal resolution of 1/3o and spans the period 2002-2017. The fit of the model to an extensive (O(10^9)) set of satellite and in situ observations was achieved through adjoint-based nonlinear least-squares optimization. The improvement of the solution compared to an unconstrained simulation is reflected in misfit reductions of 77% for Argo, 50% for satellite sea surface height, 58% for the Fram Strait mooring, 65% for Ice Tethered Profilers, and 83% for sea ice extent. Exact dynamical and kinematic consistency is a key advantage of ASTE_R1, distinguishing the state estimate from existing ocean reanalyses. Through strict adherence to conservation laws, all sources and sinks within ASTE_R1 can be accounted for, permitting meaningful analysis of closed budgets at the grid-scale, such as contributions of horizontal and vertical convergence to the tendencies of heat and salt. ASTE_R1 thus serves as the biggest effort undertaken to date of producing a specialized Arctic ocean-ice estimate over the 21st century. Transports of volume, heat, and freshwater are consistent with published observation-based estimates across important Arctic Mediterranean gateways. Interannual variability and low frequency trends of freshwater and heat content are well represented in the Barents Sea, western Arctic halocline, and east subpolar North Atlantic. Systematic biases remain in ASTE_R1, including a warm bias in the Atlantic Water layer in the Arctic and deficient freshwater inputs from rivers and Greenland discharge.

A regional data-constrained coupled ocean-sea ice general circulation model and its adjoint are used to investigate mechanisms controlling the volume transport variability through Bering Strait during 2002 to 2013. Comprehensive time-resolved sensitivity maps of Bering Strait transport to atmospheric forcing can be accurately computed with the adjoint along the forward model trajectory to identify spatial and temporal scales most relevant to the strait's transport variability. The simulated Bering Strait transport anomaly is found to be controlled primarily by the wind stress on short time-scales of order 1 month. Spatial decomposition indicates that on monthly time-scales winds over the Bering and the combined Chukchi and East Siberian Seas are the most significant drivers. Continental shelf waves and coastally-trapped waves are suggested as the dominant mechanisms for propagating information from the far field to the strait. In years with transport extrema, eastward wind stress anomalies in the Arctic sector are found to be the dominant control, with correlation coefficient of 0.94. This implies that atmospheric variability over the Arctic plays a substantial role in determining Bering Strait flow variability. The near-linear response of the transport anomaly to wind stress allows for predictive skill at interannual time-scales, thus potentially enabling skillful prediction of changes at this important Pacific-Arctic gateway, provided that accurate measurements of surface winds in the Arctic can be obtained. The novelty of this work is the use of space and time-resolved adjoint-based sensitivity maps, which enable detailed dynamical, i.e. causal attribution of the impacts of different forcings.

Diurnal tidal currents are the dominate contributors to diapycnal mixing in many regions along the pathways for warm Atlantic Water (AW) circulating within the Arctic Ocean along the continental slope. This mixing diffuses AW heat and salt into the cooler and fresher surroundings, including the upper ocean where ocean heat fluxes play a role in the stability of the ice pack. The strongest diurnal currents are associated with topographically-trapped vorticity waves, which are sensitive to stratification and mean flow. In models, these waves are also sensitive to choices for forcing and geometry. Sensitivity to background conditions implies that tidal currents and mixing will change as the Arctic evolves towards a new climate state. Here, as a first step towards understanding how diurnal tidal currents might change in a future Arctic Ocean, we describe results from a suite of high-resolution (dx=2 km) 2-D and 3-D models for Arctic diurnal tides, focusing on their currents at locations along the AW pathways. We first demonstrate that accurate representation of barotropic diurnal tides requires forcing with both open boundary conditions and the direct potential tide. Next, we use 3-D models with realistic, ocean background stratification and mean flow to describe the annual cycle of depth-averaged diurnal tidal currents. Finally, we investigate the baroclinic structure of diurnally forced waves including the generation of harmonics (semidiurnal and higher) that can contribute to mixing within the water column. Our results show that tides should be explicitly included in ocean and coupled predictive models for the Arctic to represent the feedbacks between tidal energetics and ocean mean state via mixing.

Mixing parameters can be inaccurate in ocean data assimilation systems, even if there is close agreement between observations and mixing parameters in the same modeling system when data are not assimilated. To address this, we investigate whether there are additional observations that can be assimilated by ocean modeling systems to improve their representation of mixing parameters and thereby gain knowledge of the global ocean’s mixing parameters. Observationally-derived diapycnal diffusivities–using a strain-based parameterization of finescale hydrographic structure–are included in the Estimating the Circulation & Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) framework and the GEOS-5 coupled Earth system model to test if adding observational diffusivities can reduce model biases. We find that adjusting ECCO-estimated and GEOS-5-calculated diapycnal diffusivity profiles toward profiles derived from Argo floats using the finescale parameterization improves agreement with independent diapycnal diffusivity profiles inferred from microstructure data. Additionally, for the GEOS-5 hindcast, agreement with observed mixed layer depths and temperature/salinity/stratification (i.e., hydrographic) fields improves. Dynamic adjustments arise when we make this substitution in GEOS-5, causing the model’s hydrographic changes. Adjoint model-based sensitivity analyses suggest that the assimilation of dissolved oxygen concentrations in future ECCO assimilation efforts would improve estimates of the diapycnal diffusivity field. Observationally-derived products for horizontal mixing need to be validated before conclusions can be drawn about them through similar analyses.

Mixing parameters can be inaccurate in ocean data assimilation systems, even if there is close agreement between observations and mixing parameters in the same modeling system when data are not assimilated. To address this, we investigate whether there are additional observations that can be assimilated by ocean modeling systems to improve their representation of mixing parameters and thereby gain knowledge of the global ocean’s mixing parameters. Observationally-derived diapycnal diffusivities–using a strain-based parameterization of finescale hydrographic structure–are included in the Estimating the Circulation & Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) framework and the GEOS-5 coupled Earth system model to test if adding observational diffusivities can reduce model biases. We find that adjusting ECCO-estimated and GEOS-5-calculated diapycnal diffusivity profiles toward profiles derived from Argo floats using the finescale parameterization improves agreement with independent diapycnal diffusivity profiles inferred from microstructure data. Additionally, for the GEOS-5 hindcast, agreement with observed mixed layer depths and temperature/salinity/stratification (i.e., hydrographic) fields improves. Dynamic adjustments arise when we make this substitution in GEOS-5, causing the model’s hydrographic changes. Adjoint model-based sensitivity analyses suggest that the assimilation of dissolved oxygen concentrations in future ECCO assimilation efforts would improve estimates of the diapycnal diffusivity field. Observationally-derived products for horizontal mixing need to be validated before conclusions can be drawn about them through similar analyses.