Abstract
The South American Monsoon System (SAMS) is the dominant mode of
hydroclimatic variability in South America and the associated dynamics
have an important influence on atmospheric organization during pluvial
and drought periods. Paleoclimate records from the monsoon domain have
helped to describe the isotope hydrology of this region over the last
millennium, but are insufficient to explain why the system has changed.
Utilizing transient simulations of last millennium climate from
isotope-enabled global climate models as well as experiments forced by
isolated external forcings made available from the NCAR Community Earth
System Model Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) project, we explore the
dynamical drivers of variability documented in the isotopic record. We
find that while models continue to underestimate the temporal
variability of regional climate, they are able to reproduce documented
spatial modes of variability. A Monte Carlo empirical orthogonal
function (MCEOF) analysis is used to decompose major modes of isotope
variability from both isotope proxy records and isotope-enabled global
climate models over the last millennium (850 – 1850 CE). The principal
component time series from the isotopic records show clear mean state
departures during the early and late part of the record, corresponding
to the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age periods. We explore
the role of internal variability and different external forcings in
driving these departures, and use the model space to describe changes to
regional circulation patterns during these periods of extreme isotopic
change. This enhanced understanding of the drivers of variability over
the last millennium could provide a foundation upon which to interpret
the sensitivity of this system to future changes due to external
forcings, such as anthropogenic activity.