“Computational Correlational Studies of Tropical Cyclone Energetic with
Dynamical Fluid Motions and Physical features of Meso-Scale Convective
Systems to Develop Tropical Cyclone Numerical Forecasting Models
(TC-NFM)”.
Abstract
The efforts are to test, evaluate, and improve predictions of Tropical
Cyclone’s track, intensity, speed, and inner core Structure, beyond 5
days, through the study of Tropical Cyclone Energetic in correlation
with dynamical fluid motions and physical features (e.g. radiative
transfer, chemistry, cloud processes), of mesoscale NH-SH Convective
systems in order to develop a unique Tropical Cyclone Forecast Models
(TCFM), acting as Operational real-time forecast guidance for all
Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes across the Atlantic, Asia Pacific, North
Indian Ocean, and SH-Ocean basins. The key to this new prediction system
(TC-NFM) would be the development of very fine (1deg–1deg) grid nests
moving with individual storms within the global model, having a coupling
capability for these nests in space & time mode. (TC-NFM) would be
coupled to Atlantic, and North Indian Ocean basins Storms, so that its
grid filter gets updated whenever there are active cyclonic storms in
these basins. High-resolution Satellite imageries of the two Super
Cyclonic Storms (SCS) over the Atlantic& North Indian Oceanic basins
that occurred during May-October 2020 would be examined with emphasis on
the large scale kinematic and thermodynamic behavior of these two SCS,
viz.
Laura’(Atlantic,26Aug’20,240Kmph,937hPaAmphan’(BOB,17May’20,240Kmph,920hPa)
and other selected mesoscale Convective Systems, e.g. intense Cloud
Clusters Thunderstorms, by making use of Aircraft, Doppler Weather Radar
and conventional data over the selected domain in order to study
mathematical and computational aspects of weather and climate through
the spatial structure of Cloud field incorporating the Hurricane Weather
Research Forecast Models. Based on Suchman, Martin, Sikdar (1977), Cloud
Cluster studies, and of Goswami. V.K et.al. (1990); wherein, the two
plausible Models of Monsoon Depression have been postulated in terms of
Cluster Coalescence Theory and Giant Cluster Theory, would be employed
to study the said two SCS over Atlantic & North Indian Oceanic basins
during the Storm-Cycle (May-Oct)’20 to develop (TC-NFM). KEYWORDS:
Energetic, Meso-Scale Convective Systems, Cluster Coalescence Theory,
Giant Cluster Theory, Tropical Cyclone Numerical Forecasting
Models-TCNFM.