Nonlinear Response of Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation to Emission
Reductions in India and China
Abstract
Now published: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3b19 Anthropogenic
aerosols over South and East Asia currently have a stronger impact on
the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) than greenhouse gas emissions, yet
projected aerosol emission changes in these regions are subject to
considerable uncertainty in timescale, location, emission type, and even
the sign of the change, implying large uncertainties in future ASM
change. In addition, aerosol changes in either South or East Asia cause
circulation anomalies that affect both countries and neighbouring
regions. We use a circulation/climate model to demonstrate that the sum
of ASM responses to individual aerosol emission reductions in each
region is very different to the response to simultaneous reductions in
both regions, implying the ASM response to aerosol emissions reductions
is highly nonlinear. The phenomenon is independent of whether aerosols
are scattering or absorbing, and is driven by large-scale
teleconnections between the two regions. The nonlinearity represents a
new source of uncertainty in projections of ASM changes over the next
30-40 years, and limits the utility of country-dependent aerosol
trajectories when considering their Asia-wide effects. To understand
likely changes in the ASM due to aerosol reductions, countries will need
to accurately take account of emissions reductions from across the wider
region, rather than approximating them using simple scenarios and
emulators. The nonlinearity in the response to forcing therefore
presents a regional public goods issue for countries affected by the
ASM, as the costs and benefits of aerosol emissions reductions are not
internalised; in fact, forcings from different countries work jointly to
determine outcomes across the region.