Abstract
Increasing carbon dioxide causes cooling in the upper atmosphere and a
secular decrease in atmospheric density over time. With the use of the
Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model with thermosphere and
ionosphere extension (WACCM-X), neutral thermospheric densities up to
500 km have been modelled under increasing carbon dioxide
concentrations. Only carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide concentrations
are changed between simulations, and solar activity is held low at F10.7
= 70 throughout. Using the four Representative Concentration Pathway
(RCP) carbon dioxide scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC), scenarios of neutral density decrease through
to the year 2100 have been modelled. The years 1975 and 2005 have also
been simulated, which indicated a historic trend of -5.8% change in
neutral density per decade. Decreases in the neutral density relative to
the year 2000 have been given for increasing ground-level carbon dioxide
concentrations. WACCM-X shows there has already been a 17% decrease in
neutral densities at 400 km relative to the density in the year 2000.
This becomes a 30% reduction at the 50:50 probability threshold of
limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as set out in the Paris
Agreement. A simple orbital propagator has been used to show the impact
the decrease in density has on the orbital lifetime of objects
travelling through the thermosphere. If the 1.5 degrees Celsius target
is met, objects in LEO will have orbital lifetimes around 30% longer
than comparable objects from the year 2000.