Quantifying the Importance of Ultraviolet Radiation and Non-linear
Chemistry on Surface Ozone Prediction
Abstract
This work constructs multiple regression equations of surface ozone
concentration based on non-linear combinations of high temporal
frequency and multi-year measurements of air pollutant concentrations
(PM2.5, CO, NO2, SO2) and remotely sensed ultraviolet Index (UVI) in
nine different urban regions in China. These nine regions all have
different emissions profiles, economic drivers, and climatology,
allowing a more rigorous investigation of the factors most responsible
to local surface ozone. The results show a good fit of ozone can be made
temporally (including many peaks and troughs), under conditions ranging
from relatively clean through polluted, with minimum and maximum bounds
on the goodness of the fit usually in the range from 5 to 130 ug/m3.
Overall, the results demonstrate significant differences in terms of the
most important driving factors in the different cities, with UV
radiation being most important in all cities, followed by CO, PM2.5, and
NO2 or a combination, depending on each individual city. The performance
of the ozone prediction and real measurements under both clean and
polluted conditions of PM2.5 or CO mass concentrations are further
explored and found to match very well in Xi’an and Beijing. Discussion
is presented and supported to quantify insights into why solar
ultraviolet radiation coupled with easier to measure longer-lived air
pollutants contribute a significant amount to surface ozone is possible,
all without needing to necessarily at first order wade into the
extremely complex chemistry and physics involved with boundary layer
meteorology and VOC chemistry.