Subseasonal Great Plains Rainfall via Remote Extratropical
Teleconnections: Regional Application of Theory-guided Causal Networks
Abstract
Long-range U.S. summer rainfall prediction skill is low. Monsoon
variability, especially over the West North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM)
and/or East Asian Monsoon (EAM) region, can influence U.S. Great Plains
hydroclimate variability via a forced Rossby wave response. Here we
explored subseasonal monsoon variability as a source of predictability
for Great Plains rainfall. The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation
is related to Great Plains convection and Great Plains low-level jet
(LLJ) anomalies as well as a cross-Pacific wave train. Using a causal
effect network, we found that the time between BSISO-related
geopotential height anomalies and Great Plains rainfall anomalies is
about 2 weeks; therefore, BSISO convection may be a valuable forecast of
opportunity for subseasonal prediction of Great Plains convection
anomalies. More specifically, causal link patterns/maps revealed that
the above-normal weekly EAM rainfall, rather than WNPM rainfall or
general geopotential height activity over the East Asia, was causally
linked to Great Plains LLJ strengthening and active Great Plains
convection the following week.