Shift peaks of PAH-associated health risks from East Asia to South Asia
and Africa in the future
Abstract
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), emitted from combustion of
biofuels and fossil fuels, are toxic compounds and known to cause
lung-cancer. Integrating a global atmospheric chemistry model and
plausible future emissions trajectories, we assess how global PAHs and
their associated lung cancer risk will likely change in the future.
Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) is used as an indicator of cancer risk from PAH
mixtures. From 2008 to 2050, the population-weighted global average BaP
concentrations under all RCPs consistently exceeded the WHO-recommended
limits, primarily attributed to residential biofuel use. In developing
regions of Africa and South Asia, PAH-associated lung-cancer risk
increased by 30-64% from 2008 to 2050, due to increasing use of
traditional biofuels with population growth. With the stringent air
quality policy, PAH lung-cancer risk substantially decreases by
~80% in developed countries. Climate change is likely
to have minor effects on PAH lung-cancer risk compared with the impact
of emissions.