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High-resolution Climate Projections over Minnesota for the 21st Century
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  • Stefan Liess,
  • Tracy E Twine,
  • Peter K Snyder,
  • William D. Hutchison,
  • Gabriel Konar-Steenberg,
  • Bonnie L. Keeler,
  • Kate A Brauman
Stefan Liess
University of Minnesota, University of Minnesota

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Tracy E Twine
University of Minnesota, University of Minnesota
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Peter K Snyder
University of Minnesota, University of Minnesota
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William D. Hutchison
University of Minnesota, University of Minnesota
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Gabriel Konar-Steenberg
University of Minnesota, University of Minnesota
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Bonnie L. Keeler
University of Minnesota, University of Minnesota
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Kate A Brauman
University of Minnesota, University of Minnesota
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Abstract

Minnesota is the U.S. state with the strongest winter warming in the contiguous United States. We performed regional climate projections at 10 km horizontal resolution using the WRF model forced by an ensemble of eight CMIP5 GCMs. The selected GCMs have previously been found to be in relatively good agreement with observations compared to other members of the CMIP5 model ensemble. Our projections suggest ongoing warming in all seasons, especially in winter, as well as shallower snow cover and fewer days with snow cover. On the other hand, we expect significant increases in spring and early summer heavy precipitation events. Our comparisons between different time slices and two different emission scenarios indicate a climate for the state of Minnesota at the end of the 21st century that is significantly different from what has been observed by the end of the 20th century. Winters and summers are expected to be up to 6oC and 4oC warmer, respectively, over northern and central Minnesota and spring precipitation may increase by more than 1 mm d-1 over northern Minnesota. Especially over the central part of the state, winter snow height is suggested to decrease by more than 0.5 meters and the number of days per year with snow height of more than 0.0254 meters (one inch) is expected to decrease by up to 60.
Mar 2022Published in Earth and Space Science volume 9 issue 3. 10.1029/2021EA001893