Estimation and Forecasting Potential Evapotranspiration Using Limited
Hydrometeorological Data
Abstract
Potential evapotranspiration (ETp), defined as the amount of water that
would be lost by evaporation and transpiration from an area in the
absence of water limitation, is an import hydrometeorological variable.
Accurate estimation ETp is critical for a wide range of applications
including predictions of, irrigation water requirement, groundwater
recharge, stream discharge, drought and wildfires. Long-term change in
ETp is considered an indicator of the impact of climate change on
ecosystem functioning. A wide range of physically-based and empirical
models have been developed to estimate ETp. These methods can be
explained in terms of their complexity data requirements. The most
complex and demanding models (e.g., Penmann-Montheith) require
measurements of radiation, temperature, windspeed, and vapor pressure
and have been shown to provide very close approximation of physically
measured ET from unstressed systems. On the other extreme, the simplest
models require only temperature data (e.g., Thornthwaite, 1948) and are
the most commonly implemented. However, without site-specific
calibration, methods that depend solely on temperature achieve only
modest accuracy. Here we present a machine-learning (ML) approaches that
utilize hourly and sub-hourly temperature records to produce predictions
that are comparable with the more complex methods that require full
meteorological datasets. Specifically, we show that ML algorithms can
learn the patterns of temperature fluctuations that are related to
attenuation of potential solar radiation. We anticipate the approach
developed here will be valuable for estimation of historical ETp as well
as for short-term forecasting using temperature forecasts.