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\begin{document}

\title{Carbon Reduction Potential and its Related Land Requirement: Analysis on
Energy Transition Pathways for the Brazilian Steelmaking}



\author[1]{Jhonathan Fernandes Torres de Souza}%
\author[2]{Sergio Pacca}%
\affil[1]{Universidade de São Paulo}%
\affil[2]{University of São Paulo (USP)}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 20, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Steelmaking is a key-sector for development; it is also one of the most
energy and CO\textsubscript{2} intensive industries. Brazilian
steelmaking was responsible for 44.3 million metric tons of
CO\textsubscript{2} emissions and 40\% of its output supported the
international steel demand in 2018. Then, there is a need to harmonize
the increasing steel demand with low carbon energy alternatives towards
sustainable development. Here, we forecast scenarios until 2050 to
analyze the CO\textsubscript{2} reduction potential through energy
transitions in two production routes of the Brazilian steelmaking: for
primary steel, the increase of renewable charcoal use in blast furnaces;
and for secondary steel, whose direct emission is relatively low but it
is highly power intensive, the use of on-site photovoltaic (PV) energy
to meet the power demand. Renewable energy sources for electricity play
a particularly relevant role as power demand increases 69\% with the
substitution of charcoal for coke. The analysis has been supported by
econometric models and emission factors from the IPCC GHG inventory
guidelines for direct and indirect emissions. Results have shown that
steel production will increase 1.8\% per year from 2020 levels and will
yield 77MtCO\textsubscript{2} in 2050. The Charcoal+PV scenario can
mitigate 49\% of such emissions. The land-intensity to enable such
scenario is 51m\selectlanguage{ngerman}² per avoided tCO\textsubscript{2} for the entire period.
Alternatively, if steel sector's emissions were compensated by native
reforestation, this value decreases to 38m²/tCO\textsubscript{2}.
However, according to the uncertainty analysis, reforestation presents a
higher land-intensity than charcoal+PV scenario in 31\% of the Monte
Carlo simulations. In addition, other issues affect suitability of the
scenarios and must be discussed: the benefit-cost of bioenergy versus
costs of conservational reforestation; ancillary benefits of standing
forests such as biodiversity improvement. Moreover, considering the
carbon cycle, charcoal is sustainable far beyond the analyzed period,
whereas new areas will be needed to stock carbon in conservational
reforestation projects. The findings of this study can assist
governmental and private decision-makers to elaborate policies for more
plausible pathways to confront climate change and guarantee economic,
social, and environmental development.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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