Abstract
The ocean’s “biological pump” significantly modulates atmospheric
carbon dioxide levels. However, the complexity and variability of
processes involved introduces uncertainty in interpretation of transient
observations and future climate projections. Much work has focused on
“parametric uncertainty”, particularly determining the exponent(s) of
a power-law relationship of sinking particle flux with depth. Varying
this relationship’s functional form introduces additional “structural
uncertainty”. We use an ocean biogeochemistry model substituting six
alternative remineralization profiles fit to a reference power-law
curve, to characterize structural uncertainty, which, in atmospheric
pCO2 terms, is roughly 50% of the parametric uncertainty associated
with varying the power-law exponent within its plausible global range,
and similar to uncertainty associated with regional variation in
power-law exponents. The substantial contribution of structural
uncertainty to total uncertainty highlights the need to improve
characterization of biological pump processes, and compare the
performance of different profiles within Earth System Models to obtain
better constrained climate projections.